Tyers, R.
(1993)
Economic reform in Europe and the former Soviet Union: implications for international food markets.
Other.
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washnigton, USA.
Abstract
The research sheds light on possible outcomes of economic reforms in Eastern Europe and the former USSR, examining how international food markets may change and how developing countries will be affected. The effects of policy changes in Western Europe are also analysed. An earlier dynamic international trade model is adapted to forecast possible international trade repercussions in cereals, meat, dairy products and sugar of three different scenarios for the speed of recovery of agriculture. The simulation also takes account of possible changes in CAP prices and of the possible expansion of the EU. On average, the post-socialist countries are expected to be self-sufficient in food by the year 2000 with exports around 50%-80% of those predicted for the USA. World prices could fall by 4%-16%
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