Koester, U.
(1982)
Policy options for the grain economy of the European Community: implications for developing countries.
Other.
International Food Policy Research Institute, USA.
Abstract
The study analyzes four policy options for the EC grain economy from the developing countries' points of view. The first is for past policies of high protection to continue. Production, consumption, and net trade are projected to 1985 and 1990. The EC net surplus of wheat would rise from 11.4 Mt in 1980 to 11.9 Mt in 1985 and 17.3 Mt in 1990. The EC compensated for only 1.8% of the grain deficit of developing countries in 1980 but might provide for 12-15% in 1985. The second policy option assumes complete liberalization of EC grain trade. This would not only directly affect world grain prices, production, and trade but would indirectly affect markets closely related to the grain market. World grain production would be about 0.9% lower, mainly due to a 3.3% drop in barley production. World prices would go up about 9.6% for wheat, but only 2.2% for maize. Developing countries in total would lose up to 0.04% of GNP in welfare, whereas developed countries would gain about 0.02% of GNP. These losses for developing countries might be somewhat compensated for by indirect effects...
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