Hazell, P.B.R.
(1982)
Instability in Indian foodgrain production.
Other.
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, USA .
Abstract
Available state and crop data on the production and areas sown with different cereals are used to examine the sources of increased instability in Indian total cereal production. The study builds on work by S. Mehra (Instability in Indian agriculture in the context of the new technology, WAERSA, 24,3306) and attempts to show more precisely how the improved seed/fertilizer-based technologies have contributed to the increase in production instability. Proper understanding of the sources of the increase in instability is necessary if appropriate strategies are to be derived for reducing it. The analysis is confined to rice, wheat, bajra, barley, jowar, maize, ragi, small millets, and total cereal production. Instability is measured as the variance of total cereal production for all India, which is equal to the sum of the production variances of individual crops within states and the sum of all intercrop and interstate production covariances. The production variances and covariances are decomposed through statistical identities to isolate their sources of change between two periods: 1954/1955-1964/1965 and 1967/1968-1977/1978. The variance of total cereal production for all India increased by 342% between two periods. Of this increase, only about 6% can be attributed directly to increases in the variances of individual crop yields measured at the state level. The lion's share of the increase (82%) can be attributed to increases in the covariances of production between crops grown in the same and in different states
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