Frank, S. and Havlík, P. and Soussana, J-F and Levesque, A. and etl, .
(2017)
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture
without compromising food security?
Environmental Research Letters, 12.
pp. 1-14.
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Abstract
To keep global warming possibly below 1.5 ◦C and mitigate adverse effects of climate change,
agriculture, like all other sectors, will have to contribute to efforts in achieving net negative emissions
by the end of the century. Cost-efficient distribution of mitigation across regions and economic
sectors is typically calculated using a global uniform carbon price in climate stabilization scenarios.
However, in reality such a carbon price would substantially affect food availability. Here, we assess the
implications of climate changemitigation in the land use sector for agricultural production and food
security using an integrated partial equilibrium modelling framework and explore ways of relaxing the
competition between mitigation in agriculture and food availability. Using a scenario that limits
global warming cost-efficiently across sectors to 1.5 ◦C, results indicate global food calorie losses
ranging from 110–285 kcal per capita per day in 2050 depending on the applied demand elasticities.
This could translate into a rise in undernourishment of 80–300 million people in 2050. Less ambitious
greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in the land use sector reduces the associated food security impact
significantly, however the 1.5 ◦C target would not be achieved without additional reductions outside
the land use sector. Efficiency of GHG mitigation will also depend on the level of participation
globally. Our results show that if non-Annex-I countries decide not to contribute to mitigation action
while other parties pursue their mitigation efforts to reach the global climate target, food security
impacts in these non-Annex-I countries will be higher than if they participate in a global agreement,
as inefficient mitigation increases agricultural production costs and therefore food prices. Land-rich
countries with a high proportion of emissions from land use change, such as Brazil, could reduce
emissions with only a marginal effect on food availability. In contrast, agricultural mitigation in high
population (density) countries, such as China and India, would lead to substantial food calorie loss
without a major contribution to global GHG mitigation. Increasing soil carbon sequestration on
agricultural land would allow reducing the implied calorie loss by 65% when sticking to the initially
estimated land use mitigation requirements, thereby limiting the impact on undernourishment to
20–75 million people, and storing significant amounts of carbon in soils.
| Item Type: |
Article
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| Uncontrolled Keywords: |
AFOLU, climate change mitigation, food security, soil carbon, partial equilibrium model
Supplementary material |
| Author Affiliation: |
IIASA, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria |
| Subjects: |
Environmental Science |
| Divisions: |
General |
| Depositing User: |
Mr T L Gautham
|
| Date Deposited: |
31 May 2018 10:52 |
| Last Modified: |
31 May 2018 10:52 |
| URI: |
http://eprints.icrisat.ac.in/id/eprint/15474 |
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