Beach, R.H. and Creason, J. and Ohrel, S.B. and et al, .
(2015)
Global mitigation potential and costs of reducing
agricultural non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions
through 2030.
Journal of Integrative Environmental Sciences, 12 (S1).
pp. 87-105.
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Abstract
Agricultural emissions account for 53% of 2010 global non-CO2
emissions and are projected to increase substantially over the next
20 years, especially in Asia, Latin America and Africa. While agriculture
is a substantial source of emissions, it is also generally considered to be
a potential source of cost-effective non-CO2 GHG abatement. Previous
“bottom-up” analyses provided marginal abatement cost (MAC)
curves for use in modeling these options within economy-wide and
global mitigation analyses. In this paper, we utilize updated economic
and biophysical data and models developed by the US Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) to investigate regional mitigation potential
for major sources of agricultural GHG emissions. In addition, we
explore mitigation potential available at costs at or below the
estimated benefits of mitigation, as represented by the social cost
of carbon. Key enhancements over previous regional assessments
include incorporation of additional mitigation options, updated
baseline emissions projections, greater spatial disaggregation, and
development of MAC curves through 2030. For croplands and rice
cultivation, biophysical, process-based models (DAYCENT and DNDC)
are used to simulate yields and net GHG emissions under baseline
and mitigation scenarios while the livestock sector is modeled by
applying key mitigation options to baselines compiled by EPA. MAC
curves are generated accounting for net GHG reductions, yield effects,
livestock productivity effects, commodity prices, labor requirements,
and capital costs where appropriate. MAC curves are developed at the
regional level and reveal large potential for non-CO2 GHG mitigation
at low carbon prices, especially in Asia.
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