Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’

Berkhout, F. and Hertin, J. and Jordan, A. (2001) Socio-economic futures in climate change impact assessment: using scenarios as ‘learning machines’. Working Paper. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, United Kingdom.

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Abstract

Climate impact assessment requires a clear picture of two intimately interrelated processes: socio-economic change and climate change. To date, future change in socioeconomic systems has been mostly ignored in the analysis of climate change impacts. More inclusive and systematic scenario approaches offer a means of dealing with critical issues of complexity, innovation, reflexivity and framing in analysing change in socioeconomic systems, paving the way for a more sensitive and systematic handling of socioeconomic futures in impact assessment. We argue that scenarios represent a heuristic tool encouraging policy and organisational learning in climate impact assessment. The advantages and disadvantages of a scenario-based approach are explored via a detailed study of a regional climate impact assessment in the UK.

Item Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Climate change; Socio-economic scenarios; Impact assessment; Organisational learning
Author Affiliation:	SPRU, University of Sussex, Brighton, East Sussex, BN1 9RF, UK
Subjects:	Social Sciences
Divisions:	General
Depositing User:	Ms K Syamalamba
Date Deposited:	11 Mar 2014 05:46
Last Modified:	11 Mar 2014 05:46
URI:	http://eprints.icrisat.ac.in/id/eprint/12848

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